Socioeconomic Questions for Guam/CNMI Sources

OVERALL OBJECTIVES: (1) Data: Obtain key data or supplementary data about both existing conditions and likely impacts; and (2) Scenarios and Policies: Especially during construction, it is possible that conditions on Guam (and to a lesser extent Tinian) will depend not just on direct military activities, but on whether local government policies permit or discourage additional imported labor in makeshift housing to meet additional demands (e.g., ancillary activities such as road construction, indirect/induced economic activity from the project itself, and unrelated or distantly-related other activities such as resumed hotel construction) … or if these economic activities would effectively be deterred or delayed due to labor and housing constraints.

We envision meetings not only with GovGuam and some CNMI or Tinian municipal agencies, but also with private sources such as the Guam Contractors Assn., Guam Visitors Bureau, real estate experts, etc.

I.    CONTEXT AND OVERVIEW QUESTIONS

Specific Objectives: These questions are deliberately broad. Some (not necessarily all) would be used with selected interviewees partly as warm-up or icebreaker questions, but also to ensure that we understand big-picture dynamics and do not overlook important underlying general factors in an otherwise focused and technical analysis.

Probable Targets for These Questions: Leaders with overview insights and capacity – e.g., Governor, Planning Director, Chief Economist, heads of key business organizations.

1.    Historically, how have military activities in Guam/Tinian affected the economy? the socio-cultural fabric? the nature and quality of local government? (We’re particularly interested in learning anything that interviewees think the military itself may not always fully realize.)

2.    When the military cut back greatly in the 1990s on Guam, what were the most important negative or positive effects for the economy, the socio-cultural fabric, and local government?

3.    Despite the military cutbacks, tourism growth produced a construction boom in the first part of the 1990s. What were the critical “lessons learned” from that period for the next boom, if any?

4.    Since the announcement of the military buildup, what apparent consequences have already occurred for the economy, socio-cultural fabric, local government?

5.    What, if any, foreseeable independent factors or changes are likely to interact with military construction or later increased operations on Guam/Tinian? For example, would tourism or any other non-military economic activity realistically expand either during construction or the initial years of sharply increased military operations?

 

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